World Cup 2014

The great global quadrennial sporting spectacle that most Americans don’t give a crap about is only two days away!

So, just like I did four years ago at this time, I’m working on my predictions for the World Cup. By any realistic permutation, it seems to me that the semi finals will come down to Brazil, Spain, Germany and Argentina, but I’m having a hard time calling an outright winner…

 

So instead, let’s start with my beloved England.

Despite it being almost 50 years since our last (and only) World Cup win, England have often laboured under the pressure of greatly inflated expectations. This time, we seem much more inclined to go into the tournament hoping for a good showing, but not expecting a win. Hopefully this will allow the players to feel a little more freedom.

We have a good blend of youth and experience this year, with the indefatigable Steven Gerrard holding down the midfield and the ever-potent Wayne Rooney playing closer to the front, complemented by the pace and inventiveness of players such as Ross Barkley and Raheem Sterling.

Ultimately, England have a tough group, facing Uruguay (with the deadly strike force of Cavani and Suarez) and Italy (with the creative midfield brilliance of Verratti and Pirlo). A win against either one would put England in good shape to qualify from Group D, but losses to both will all but guarantee an early exit.

I’m counting on England to beat Costa Rica and pull at least a draw against one of the other two, getting through the group in second place. This will pit them against the winners of Group C in the Round of 16, probably either Colombia or Ivory Coast, either of which England can beat on a good day. The quarter finals, though, would bring the formidable might of Brazil against us, and overcoming that hurdle would take a miracle. Were the miracle to happen, an equally tough test against Spain would await… but I can’t predict England beating Brazil based on anything other than wishful thinking.

Best case scenario: Quarter finalists.

 

And so to my adopted home, the USA.

Jurgen Klinsmann’s men have been handed a nasty draw, being up against Germany (#2 ranked team in the world, three-time winners and consistent high performers at World Cup tournaments), Portugal (frequently a ‘dark horse’ team with the potential to go far) and Ghana (at whose hands the USA were eliminated four years ago).

Similar to England‘s situation, a win against Ghana and a draw against one of the other two is probably the only realistic way to see the USA progress to the Round of 16. At that point, they would in all likelihood face a very strong Belgium side, and have great difficulty winning that game. The prize for winning the hypothetical USA v Belgium match would be their probable elimination at the hands of Argentina, but I’m expecting Belgium to be the ones to suffer that particular ignominy.

Best case scenario: Round of 16.

 

As with every World Cup, there will be twists, surprises and heartbreak. The vicissitudes of the draw ensure that one of Chile and the Netherlands will not progress beyond the group stage, unless Spain were to implode. If England progress, either Uruguay or Italy will be on an earlier flight home than a team of their calibre deserves. A favourable draw means that any of  Belgium, France or Bosnia-Herzegovina could get at least as far as the quarter-finals.

 

So who will win?

Brazil enter the tournament heavily favoured to win – and while playing on home turf can be an advantage, it is the quality of their squad which will decide the day. From Maicon to Neymar, almost every Brazilian player has the talent to turn a game on his own, and it’s hard to bet against eleven such players.

Defending champions Spain are built around a solid core of extremely gifted Barcelona players who have developed their understanding of each other’s play over six years, a luxury few teams can enjoy. Their opponents will now expect the high-level pressing game and tiki-taka passing, but it will be hard to break them down.

Germany will open their tournament by playing their 100th World Cup game, a figure unmatched by any other team. Known for a relentless work-rate and smooth teamwork, Die Nationalmannschaft will shut down opposition attacks and punish any defensive lapses.

Argentina, boasting the awe-inspiring forward line of Messi, Aguero and Higuain, will inevitably score goals. While there are some defensive questions, you can usually rely on the Albiceleste to score more than they concede.

It could easily be any of the four, but I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a third trophy for Argentina.